As the 2015 nuclear weapons agreement between Iran and major powers weakened over time, Iran has been ramping up its nuclear activities, making it faster for it to develop a nuclear weapon if it decide to, even though it claims they don’t want one.
A top commander from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards mentioned on Thursday that Iran might reconsider its approach to nuclear matters due to threats from Israel. While it’s not entirely clear what he meant, “nuclear doctrine” usually relates to countries with nuclear weapons, unlike Iran. Here’s a summary of Iran’s current situation in terms of its nuclear program.
Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program
In 2015, a significant agreement was made regarding Iran’s nuclear program. This deal imposed strong restrictions on Iran’s nuclear actions in return for removing international sanctions against the country. As part of the deal, Iran had to greatly reduce its supply of enriched uranium, keeping only a small amount with a purity of up to 3.67%, which is far below the level needed for making nuclear weapons.
The main goal, as stated by the United States at that time, was to prolong the time Iran would require to produce enough material for a nuclear bomb. This delay, which aimed to be at least a year, was seen as the most crucial obstacle in Iran’s nuclear weapons development program.
In 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement, leading to sanctions being reinstated on Tehran. This greatly reduced Iran’s oil sales and harmed its economy. Subsequently, in 2019, Iran began violating the limitations on its nuclear activities and exceeded them significantly.
As of now, Iran has violated all major restrictions of the agreement. This includes rules regarding where and with what equipment uranium can be enriched, as well as the amount of enriched material it can possess.
Before, Iran was allowed to stockpile up to 202.8 kilograms of enriched uranium according to the agreement. However, in February, the U.N. nuclear watchdog reported that Iran’s stockpile had reached 5.5 tonnes, significantly surpassing the limit.
Iran has ramped up its uranium enrichment, now reaching levels as high as 60%. They already possess enough material at this level to potentially create two nuclear weapons, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. This development drastically reduces the “breakout time,” the period needed to produce weapons-grade uranium, potentially down to mere weeks or even days.
The IAEA regularly inspects Iran’s declared enrichment facilities, which include both above-ground and underground sites at Natanz and Fordow respectively.
However, due to Iran’s partial withdrawal from the nuclear deal, the IAEA’s ability to monitor production and inventory of uranium-enriching centrifuges has been compromised. Snap inspections are no longer possible, raising concerns about the existence of undisclosed enrichment sites, though there’s no solid evidence to support this speculation.
Also Read: Google Fires 28 Employees Who Opposed Its Agreement with Israel
Iran’s Nuclear Weaponization Potential
Analyzing Iran’s nuclear capabilities involves more than just uranium enrichment. It also raises concerns about how quickly Iran could complete a nuclear weapon and if it could fit into a delivery system like a ballistic missile. Predicting this is challenging because it’s unclear how much Iran knows.
According to U.S. intelligence and the IAEA, Iran had a nuclear weapons program until 2003, with some activities continuing until 2009. However, Iran denies ever having such a program, although its Supreme Leader suggests otherwise.
Experts’ estimates on how long Iran would take to weaponize range from months to a year. General Mark Milley, former top U.S. military officer, testified that it would take Iran several months, but he didn’t explain his reasoning.
The IAEA expresses concerns about Iran’s statements on its nuclear capabilities, especially those suggesting it’s as easy as building a car, as stated by Iran’s former nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi.
| Also Read: |
|---|
| Israel’s Air Defense System Against Iran’s Drone, Missile Attack |
| Iran Threatens US Bases Over Support for Israel, Check 10 Updates |
Iran’s Nuclear Program FAQs
Q.1. What was the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran?
Ans. The 2015 nuclear agreement aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for lifting international sanctions. It required Iran to reduce its enriched uranium stockpile and accept strict monitoring.
Q.2. How did the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement impact Iran’s nuclear activities?
Ans. The U.S. withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 led to reinstatement of sanctions on Iran, crippling its economy. Iran subsequently violated nuclear deal limitations, ramping up uranium enrichment.
Q.3. What are the current violations of Iran regarding uranium enrichment?
Ans. Iran has surpassed enrichment limits set by the 2015 agreement, accumulating a stockpile far exceeding the permitted amount. It has also enriched uranium to levels reaching 60%, far beyond the agreed limit of 3.67%.
Q.4. How has Iran’s uranium enrichment progressed in recent times?
Ans. Iran’s enrichment activities have escalated, with levels now reaching as high as 60%, potentially allowing for the production of nuclear weapons. This rapid progress has raised international concerns.
Q.5. What are the concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear weaponization potential?
Ans. Concerns revolve around Iran’s ability to weaponize its enriched uranium and integrate it into a delivery system. Estimates vary on the time needed for weaponization, with uncertainties surrounding Iran’s knowledge and intentions.
